How did China become Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner?

China’s economic competition with Russia in Central Asia is moving towards a new equation for Kazakhstan, which expects its eastern neighbour to top its trade partners list, as international sanctions imposed by the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine change the reality and trade movement.

For more than 3 decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has maintained its status as Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner, although during that period China has made progress in most parts of the Caspian Sea to Manchuria.

But the financial and economic sanctions that isolated Russia and restricted its trade are an opportunity for China.

Serik Zumangarin, deputy prime minister of Kazakhstan and minister of trade and integration, said it would be a few years before China removed Russia from the lead.

In an interview with the capital, Astana, Zumangarin noted that “trade growth is credited to China.” By 2030, Kazakhstan’s trade volumes with China would be higher than its trade with the 27-nation European Union.

Kazakhstan’s trade with China increased by almost a third last year to close to $24 billion. This figure is still $2 billion lower than the volume of trade with Russia, which grew by just over 6% in 2022, according to Kazakhstan’s National Statistical Office.

The President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who is fluent in Chinese and worked in a period diplomatically with China, refused to support Russia in the invasion just weeks after he needed troops sent to him by Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop a riot that caused killings in early 2022.

However, while reaffirming its commitment to Russia’s war-related restrictions, Kazakhstan opposes the US-led sanctions campaign. Its trade with Russia has grown since the start of the attack on Ukraine in February 2022.

Besides other countries such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan has been subject to scrutiny by Western Governments regarding the facilitation of the export of prohibited cargo shipments.

In limiting trade opportunities with Russia, Kazakhstan is heading east towards China, through the Caspian Sea to Iran, then to the Gulf region, India and beyond. “The trend towards China is a priority,” Zumangarin said.