Tajikistan’s economy to grow 7.5% in 2023–2024, EBRD says

Tajikistan’s economy is expected to register strong growth of 7.5% in 2023 and 2024, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD).

“Strong regional cooperation, public investment (especially in water and energy infrastructure), the flow of remittances from Russia, and the strong performance of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors are the main influencing factors,” the EBRD said.

The slowdown in Chinese growth and possible conflicts over transboundary water resources may negatively affect the forecast.

The recent wave of economic growth in the Central Asian countries is likely to continue, driven by government spending, the reopening of China, intermediate trade with Russia, as well as remittances, and the relocation of tourism and business from Russia.

However, the regional investment plan indicates that high borrowing costs may affect the volume and willingness to invest in the region.

At the same time, recent disruptions in water and energy supply may lead to long-awaited tariff reforms as well as improved resource management.