UAE’s GDP to grow 4.8% in 2024

The UAE’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 would double year-on-year to 4.8%, up from 2.4% in 2023, according to an Oxford Economics report.

The current forecast for oil production in the UAE is 3.28 million barrels per day, down 1.2% from last year. However, the UAE has consistently surpassed its target for OPEC production levels, maintaining about 3.25 million barrels per day. This trend is expected to continue, with an average production forecast of 3.35 million bpd in 2024 and a further increase to 3.6 million bpd in 2025.

The UAE seeks to expand the non-oil sector as part of its economic development plans. The recent successful sale of sovereign bonds, which raised $1.5 billion, supported these efforts. The country’s prospective integration into the BRICS Group in January is a milestone, stimulating trade and investment opportunities and promoting a diversification and growth strategy.

The logistics, technology, infrastructure, and finance sectors are expected to be among the main beneficiaries. GDP growth is likely to decline modestly to 3.8% in 2024, down slightly from 5.2% this year.

The UAE’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, driven primarily by the strong performance of the non-oil sector.

The purchasing managers’ index of 57.7 in October reached its highest level in the UAE since the coronavirus pandemic, confirming the resilience of the non-oil economy and its continued growth.

Credit growth in the UAE has tended to rise this year, moving away from regional patterns, with individuals’ loans growing by about 10% year-on-year, despite high borrowing costs. Fiscal surpluses are expected to exceed 5% of GDP in the near and medium term.

The UAE is making significant progress in financing green instruments, allocating funds for sustainable projects, and promoting its transition to zero emissions. Following COP28, the UAE is expected to intensify its efforts towards meeting its zero emission reduction commitments.

The UAE’s inflation data is expected to be consolidated and published annually, as was the case in 2022.

In Dubai, inflation rose to 4.3% in October, hitting a seven-month high. Housing is now the main source of upward pressure, but transport inflation has become positive again for the first time since February.