China’s economic data shows 5% growth target within reach

China’s newly disclosed economic data showed that 5% year-over-year GDP growth is “clearly within grasp,” according to “Xinhua” News Agency.

“The just-released Q3 figures do not support the negative economic spiral theory; rather, they support the concept of a slight rebound from Q2, putting 5% year-over-year GDP growth well within reach,” Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington and a Chinese economy specialist, told “Xinhua.”

In the third quarter, China’s GDP increased 4.9% year over year and 1.3% quarter over quarter.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, it increased 5.2% year over year in the first three quarters of 2023.

“The 1.3% quarterly increase is about two-thirds higher than the 0.8% growth in the second quarter,” according to the Chinese economy specialist.

“Per capita disposable income continues to rise faster than GDP per capita, and per capita consumption continues to expand faster than per capita disposable income,” Lardy added.

In September, China’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.8% year over year.

“Producer goods prices are continuing to decline, but at a slower rate. The deflation concept has little evidence,” Lardy said.

“Private investment declined by 0.6% in the first three quarters, around the same rate as previously reported, although private investment excluding property expanded at 9.1%, somewhat lower than the 9.4% reported for the first half,” he added.

According to Lardy, private investment outside real estate continues to increase faster than state investment, and there is “no support for broad private sector uncertainty limiting growth.”