Forecasts of growth in China’s economy after the end of zero COVID

On Tuesday, China will likely announce an economic recovery as it publishes first-quarter GDP figures since COVID restrictions that undermined growth were lifted in late 2022.

China’s zero-COVID policy to contain the coronavirus and its stringent restrictions, including quarantines, mass testing and travel bans, hampered economic activity in the country, ahead of a sudden decision by authorities to cancel the policy in December.

The figures will give the first indication since 2019 of a Chinese economy not linked to COVID restrictions.

According to AFP news agency, the growth rate is expected to be 3.8 percent year-on-year, from January to March.

But the world’s second economy continues to suffer from a series of other crises, from debt burdening the real estate sector to weak consumer confidence, global inflation and the risk of recession in other countries.

Beijing has set itself a modest growth target of about 5 percent this year, a target that Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang warned will be difficult to achieve.

While many experts tend to question China’s official figures, most expect Beijing to reach that threshold.

An AFP poll with analysts predicted China’s economy will grow by 5.3 percent this year. This is almost in line with the IMF’s forecast of 5.2 percent.

China’s economy grew by just 3% over the entire year 2022, the weakest performance in decades.